FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Michigan vs Akron

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Michigan by 5.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionNeutral effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3304 · 80% margin interval -22.4 to 11.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.2499633763422438
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.03768106716072345
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.060436825387263665
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1873212586235492
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.041782813118851306
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.0110709210687959
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.016968919202581513
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.011506511229744177
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00036080717215141063
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03949663711848926
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.1131822579397658
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.035007647893102255
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.024635200815707595
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04001541264137437
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.3035400562086154

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.