FROZEN PREDICTION

Kent State vs Bowling Green

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Bowling Green by 3.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6033 · 80% margin interval -13.3 to 20.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.01791499234674801
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030218412693631833
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.03545495216850121
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.0002977572485652613
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.010465049766523491
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.003361815119787819
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004299969671906476
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.032009477310537555
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.008696146708795437
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.01725705066801185
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08084446995697557
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0406646664038108
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03276779733462569
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.