FROZEN PREDICTION

Houston vs Colorado

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Houston by 8.2

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.2635 · 80% margin interval -24.9 to 8.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.2558847611554324
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.13181549708254203
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	0.08892082525614547
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.09967857647288873
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.20983098653077722
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.015585919513546301
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.01632682590838237
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.001456765651289652
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.04242127143292728
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.018603833843963847
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.30198299941670365
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.19094803414227968
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.08704716369098946
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.012074244237167686
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.25902724670104793

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.