FROZEN PREDICTION

Florida vs Kentucky

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Kentucky by 4.7

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6416 · 80% margin interval -11.9 to 21.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.012896405302226327
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.0561758266254483
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.06848122368998494
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.025189558385386362
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0023490814910349074
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.019169654614817313
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.025856804056200652
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.01708157031793741
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.09176325454740067
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08803064506426228
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.09286467771870505
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.021213166566180247
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04001541264137437
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620516

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.