FROZEN PREDICTION

UAB vs Temple

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Temple by 3.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5997 · 80% margin interval -13.4 to 19.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	0.0700905772037511
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.030030395625365254
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03639724630290668	-0.030799031579170473
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.019994136018553887
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09099311575726671	0.06666396328872376
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	-0.0016130225830064075
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	0.0010953275148312819
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.0024309463383325493
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.012384803267240379
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.011498964541668596
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	-0.022716629552667702
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07279449260581336	-0.03785963925445851
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.060423356051087514
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10919173890872005	0.11977069180535213
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05459586945436003	0.0077096662953212505
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14558898521162672	-0.14447569717705544

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.