FROZEN PREDICTION

California vs Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Virginia by 4.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6274 · 80% margin interval -12.4 to 20.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.08748475642822164
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04186785240080382
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030218412693631836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.09531508026499295
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.01693874997021615
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.015597514086228122
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01669022694050522
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.004387442676965112
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.025337591123345216
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.007502518366379154
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03247716232031045
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.04311705064372032
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.06784543559987993
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.060606415571307665
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620511

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.