FROZEN PREDICTION

Wake Forest vs SMU

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

SMU by 0.4

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5118 · 80% margin interval -16.3 to 17.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.02026894785347117
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.010885368572997683
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.0017344128247500298
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.07377483701952858
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.018130179359182742
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.011210115809683589
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.01661406271704537
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.0026303288444056968
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.026010993117419022
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.024506058861132968
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.039936442152201886
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.09548623072843683
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.08311087331928893
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.02051736410277964
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.025466970723800553

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.