FROZEN PREDICTION

Washington vs Michigan State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Michigan State by 0.9

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5277 · 80% margin interval -15.8 to 17.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.01061662206656171
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04605463764088421
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.030218412693631833
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.04718056375011091
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.0591600980230807
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.005068205242190893
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.020328262788974
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.011158434002145777
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.017393633250657067
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.00039613095124315517
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03971256511225643
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.041320506866898615
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.1472596410682947
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04001541264137437
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.10118001873620514

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.