FROZEN PREDICTION

Arizona State vs UCF

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCF by 6.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6924 · 80% margin interval -10.1 to 23.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.1977546293697397
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.08560100036885476
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.04359320621569772
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.19459445301369255
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.0444966671957527
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.017816627490094727
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.010468723064969947
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.009848848033641458
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.011735787101171083
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.008729576024281708
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.11424920108499978
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.011813162953045634
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0831484476630616
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.18923943617371494
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.01564207225061915
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.060112928759986015

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.