FROZEN PREDICTION

Troy vs South Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Alabama by 2.3

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningSmall effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5713 · 80% margin interval -14.3 to 19.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.006435569762622238
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.05291308004660458
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.028483999868881806
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.13654127620727644
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.08218797194840816
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.002881899889079765
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.0003774197202408621
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.001390281036178418
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.024248818782987066
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.003867766694312373
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.061218145957844604
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.0003479472136927366
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.023233697895809497
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.014141048995043995
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.01564207225061915
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.04106708997621909

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.