FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia Southern vs Georgia State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia State by 6.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6859 · 80% margin interval -10.4 to 23.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14558898521162672	0.1319716386817566
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05459586945436003	0.002478591788278174
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03639724630290668	-0.00010120066655756082
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.09099311575726671	-0.017502124091667258
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.09099311575726671	0.14744548902611132
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.005067567567567568	-0.005354856605360884
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	-0.025207739882090727
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.008149389536907593
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.006756756756756757	0.012847370450895498
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.008445945945945946	-0.0033396152370107944
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10919173890872005	0.010115029510026574
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.07279449260581336	0.04616054311184114
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05459586945436003	0.0027578834467449354
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10919173890872005	-0.13294088827235842
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05459586945436003	0.15652765887957165
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14558898521162672	0.22466014452013386

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.