FROZEN PREDICTION

Wyoming vs UTEP

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTEP by 1.0

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5306 · 80% margin interval -15.7 to 17.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.002519736943623785
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.02985372954475874
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.04542509779107237
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	-0.13566974682250385
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.041931997036667015
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.005324323565424232
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.00769222969785255
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.004155875136602449
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.010669825770179183
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.007891079936388363
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.0009447584472367515
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	-0.10561855634628879
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.00038076473272156963
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.2753253411485249
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	-0.0004176265618800329
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	-0.20458341016034243

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.