FROZEN PREDICTION

East Carolina vs Charlotte

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

East Carolina by 4.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesNeutral effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3794 · 80% margin interval -20.7 to 12.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.1673659806955825
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.13413584942163517
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.08040018714781354
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.004865330154611795
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.02867599381398287
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.01913880314000413
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.014174513066953368
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.010754829169897812
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.038111008496583235
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.18351694680233455
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.002792507177848333
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.046039230489080304
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08003082528274873
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.2023600374724103

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.