FROZEN PREDICTION

Middle Tennessee vs Liberty

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 10.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7822 · 80% margin interval -6.5 to 26.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20972381386034397
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.11722998672225071
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.015109206346815915
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.15847910318976977
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.08280645770577247
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.007913046402406356
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.009352176877888781
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0036368444426861553
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0030114350105615215
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.009912104725851863
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.007598216167077156
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.1922301841199197
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.031900089898998146
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.034943943212082745
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.12004623792412311
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20236003747241027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.