FROZEN PREDICTION

North Dakota State vs Hawai'i

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 11 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Dakota State by 9.0

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionAway data unavailable

Team talentAway data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesNeutral effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:37.725718-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.2434 · 80% margin interval -25.7 to 7.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.3150787413367807
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.050241422880964594
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.2054608885974674
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1042817214081938
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.02175628767250936
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.029046092665332233
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.010455939871340282
Returning production	Measured	Data unavailable	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.011627220058685227
Team talent	Measured	Data unavailable	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.022201882490233915
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.13974880871452666
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.14731658969937772
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.06897120726199608
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.0
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.16006165056549748
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.40472007494482054

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.