FROZEN PREDICTION

Ball State vs Ohio

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Ohio by 8.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7459 · 80% margin interval -8.1 to 25.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.1758791965184407
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.02985372954475874
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.015206685097440536
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.14175210302824623
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08843402225755168	0.042574558086877726
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.009161508479816179
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01685678511538416
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0021258480938934985
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.029491294586188696
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0031993251348810363
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	0.0456212130157958
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07074721780604133	0.1932643183261285
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.00038076473272156963
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.106120826709062	-0.15541678703163375
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.053060413354531	0.0404330392032544
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14149443561208266	0.3057634288965475

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.