FROZEN PREDICTION

Akron vs Massachusetts

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Massachusetts by 10.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7838 · 80% margin interval -6.5 to 26.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.24614292713916983
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.041867852400803825
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.20433781883982455
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.05200323702507619
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.014540911254537898
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.002764591044224312
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.006385529369279216
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.04489893836867373
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.006116060037028102
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.1060944414850409
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.1041995390556574
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.03487699534466563
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0666527225420019
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.12004623792412311
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.3035400562086154

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.