FROZEN PREDICTION

Rice vs Temple

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Temple by 6.1

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6797 · 80% margin interval -10.6 to 22.7.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.06123407458957773
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0711753490813665
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.030218412693631833
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.03505235026248302
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.07335240384190936
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.0059485546041291425
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01109438286212704
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0012910434813008728
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.0012461110388530445
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.002794363238864936
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.06634561502106706
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.03233778798279022
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.05880510593702085
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0315964871790374
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620516

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.