FROZEN PREDICTION

Bowling Green vs Toledo

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Toledo by 7.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7146 · 80% margin interval -9.3 to 24.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.13543290154631588
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08373570480160765
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.06043682538726367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.01495233809457723
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.17563615369692787
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.007398973782296439
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.02363012930225359
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0017839411612577414
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.03315174576281951
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.01170983276891396
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.08782913145035025
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.001796543776821681
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.0406646664038108
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.1534657064672935
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20236003747241024

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.