FROZEN PREDICTION

UTEP vs Air Force

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Air Force by 11.1

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.8042 · 80% margin interval -5.5 to 27.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.27974260387211003
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.11964858138807143
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.014626066211901897
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.18755850527823772
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08843402225755168	0.08007528794087475
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.0007696122125209349
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.008724107427461847
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	-0.03784310393354293
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.032501154778111954
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.013285151396645914
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	0.09089193572158062
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07074721780604133	0.17044935937495748
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.03143590480998181
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.106120826709062	-0.19563806664092592
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.053060413354531	0.05607511145387355
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14149443561208266	0.38147647690895214

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.