FROZEN PREDICTION

Houston vs West Virginia

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Houston by 6.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3007 · 80% margin interval -23.5 to 9.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20276363176902912
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07954891956152725
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.20396830518123754
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.04015128399245767
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.00811500350316383
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.010326747257396924
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.003818686664820467
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.03489110908788522
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0007052140182959424
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.24492385968185124
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.15090967725302107
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.05325412215031168
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.06609799141622602
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20236003747241027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.