FROZEN PREDICTION

BYU vs Kansas

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

BYU by 6.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3106 · 80% margin interval -23.1 to 10.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.12901539264371514
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.07711563610336057
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.08719385626326132
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.0565426755829842
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.007911174401962248
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	0.02296803027705419
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.018334158373306007
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	-0.012377248736531028
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	-0.0470406917167024
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.01058956434629
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.33241849039181226
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.048382557131423115
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.11402299514648472
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	0.018273165429143173
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.04618506171771718
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.350340413965871

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.