FROZEN PREDICTION

Georgia vs South Carolina

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Georgia by 5.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3438 · 80% margin interval -21.9 to 11.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.07639164729509956
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.1387919307086647
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.09065523808089551
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.06636701176338775
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.058592531174351245
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.020177350339314587
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.014847346725968043
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.011198413883918429
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.00015576387985662653
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.010651254803346631
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.23245603815422622
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.1221649768238742
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.06326787881520504
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.13680867394904825
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07202774275447388
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.3035400562086154

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.