FROZEN PREDICTION

Virginia Tech vs Miami

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Miami by 8.5

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7422 · 80% margin interval -8.2 to 25.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14023457419683835	0.1594097164255352
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.027027509169440828
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	0.015011727596191298
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08764660887302397	0.09421448598302848
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08764660887302397	0.029692997986316333
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.022749210157508172
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.04097261778644709
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.03970799423344384
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0012476858574913007
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.03419738996766142
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10517593064762876	0.05833478153262463
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.07011728709841918	0.11721463351505468
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.05293714185972159
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10517593064762876	-0.09760215406866585
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.10880257994287602
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14023457419683835	0.19442786276012278

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.