FROZEN PREDICTION

Stanford vs California

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

California by 9.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7736 · 80% margin interval -6.9 to 26.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.22388003386903244
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.05861499336112535
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.030218412693631836
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.18437725832084115
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.11669452243466023
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.008757594278301237
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0038516012137811825
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.007448271936962345
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.01921087851565109
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.002389401342848857
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.18417668385831037
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08264101373379723
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.06784543559987993
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.018654259615759117
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.040015412641374364
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620514

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.