FROZEN PREDICTION

Indiana vs Washington

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 9.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsStrongly leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.2273 · 80% margin interval -26.4 to 6.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.25776043945426497
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08017693734753935
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.06043682538726367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1512517220539327
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.10509724358905277
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.021866446091104344
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.006965265018121437
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0121260814356988
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.019626248861935435
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.009489480940289879
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.32487914836338205
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.11677534549340916
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.16748080777749405
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.11090744573978072
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.3035400562086154

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.