FROZEN PREDICTION

UTSA vs UAB

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTSA by 3.7

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3893 · 80% margin interval -20.3 to 13.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.15630104013248683
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.004909684184882962
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	-0.0296377938080932
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.02860112535911226
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	-0.10708905064189213
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	0.011765956830177445
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.011463866650347248
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.00044840365805761187
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.0031396634251371243
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	-0.0079518221024938
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.10163650698495867
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	-0.028612480487943633
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.09048475905439846
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.11385350641542924
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.047725078936695614
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	-0.15906435903155997

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.