FROZEN PREDICTION

NC State vs Florida State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Florida State by 5.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeNeutral effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6668 · 80% margin interval -11.1 to 22.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.15594644185800585
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.008373570480160764
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.045327619040447756
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.07584599453775648
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.012201177571961465
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.01878292835726641
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.0015390845576958197
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.013834890181823194
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.010280416070537606
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.015257349440556497
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.025452959721747076
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.08084446995697557
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.1236120740938501
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.