FROZEN PREDICTION

Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wake Forest by 4.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningStrongly leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3748 · 80% margin interval -20.8 to 12.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.11186575115763776
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.03341081926705276
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.05986365033359091
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.11073008781698228
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	-0.055769157223802004
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.0010450082590083955
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.007314986508727062
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.012497174927459782
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.008490706270824619
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.014834281989458888
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	-0.07959013955146141
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	-0.06092726134884889
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.16956513187469358
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.03407403066262578
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	-0.07055840210847242
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	-0.25902724670104793

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.