FROZEN PREDICTION

UCLA vs Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UCLA by 6.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactModerately leans away

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans away

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3215 · 80% margin interval -22.7 to 10.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.16534316429635496
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.03221540933821851
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.033720040795512496	-0.043596928131630665
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.06235317506457284
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08430010198878124	-0.14535824578059361
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.015202702702702704	-0.05462755978125262
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.025951563344651696
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.04402813970592623
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.02027027027027027	0.009501596671254458
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.02533783783783784	0.02660637503731904
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.19716833425405123
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.06744008159102499	-0.03974281478652614
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.16464728922191668
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10116012238653749	-0.047039276079407215
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.050580061193268744	-0.13855518515315157
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.13488016318204998	-0.23356027597724738

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.