FROZEN PREDICTION

Northwestern vs Minnesota

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Northwestern by 2.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4201 · 80% margin interval -19.3 to 14.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.2212283146058664
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.08979485184331268
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.08892826908801135
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.0441658772918336
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.1055559619282673
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.013584708242404087
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.007855886156569897
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.007129625952383821
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.024297590438996094
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.0028610389901975886
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.013143480324810188
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.11396790854635691
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.049111787848153274
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.06245629220858648
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.10801219568605352
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.07571304801240461

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.