FROZEN PREDICTION

Ohio State vs Nebraska

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Nebraska by 1.2

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5372 · 80% margin interval -15.4 to 17.9.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.003028067766107534
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.008373570480160769
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.03674991435206562
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.00810763623803605
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.021885723814358465
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.02227587336377835
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.02329727343007617
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.011422684522819568
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.012148730724128882
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0177467055188133
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.048776163540708614
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.04910530893397456
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.029491394290446483
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.