FROZEN PREDICTION

Rutgers vs Penn State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Penn State by 5.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home
Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect
Close-game gritSmall effect
Defensive toughnessModerately leans home
Scoring punchModerately leans away
Transfer portal impactSmall effect
Previous-season performanceSmall effect
Recruiting strengthSmall effect
Returning productionSmall effect
Team talentSmall effect
Big-game winsSmall effect
Recent formModerately leans away
Wins away from homeSmall effect
Tough schedulesModerately leans away
Statement winsModerately leans home
WinningModerately leans home
Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6605 · 80% margin interval -11.3 to 22.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used
Configuration
Revision 3
Engine version
3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff
Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor keyNormalized share
adj_margin0.108108
avoid_bad_losses0.040541
close_game_wins0.027027
defense_ppg0.067568
offense_ppg0.067568
preseason_portal0.040541
preseason_previous_performance0.054054
preseason_recruiting0.067568
preseason_returning0.054054
preseason_talent0.067568
quality_wins0.081081
recent_form0.054054
road_neutral_wins0.040541
sos0.081081
statement_wins0.040541
win_pct0.108108
Retained calibration/contextFrozen value
versionprovisional-all-slates-policy-v1
calibration_kinddocumented_policy
validation_statusnot_historically_validated
applied_home_field_points2.5
applied_fcs_baseline_z-1.5
residual_scale13.0
residual_scale_sourcedocumented_policy_not_validated
intercept0.0
difference_coefficient7.0
home_field_coefficient2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

FactorHome evidenceAway evidenceNormalized shareHome effective shareAway effective shareWeighted difference
Game controlMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.140234574196838350.134880163182049980.13004074060164345
Avoiding bad lossesMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.052587965323814380.0505800611932687440.04421272518646015
Close-game gritMeasuredMeasured0.0270270.035058643549209590.033720040795512496-0.0017269689928841522
Defensive toughnessMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.087646608873023970.084300101988781240.16424625105642823
Scoring punchMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.087646608873023970.08430010198878124-0.05624299248225772
Transfer portal impactMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.0101351351351351360.015202702702702704-0.011822173544884329
Previous-season performanceMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0135135135135135140.020270270270270270.012652630010187514
Recruiting strengthMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.0168918918918918930.025337837837837840.0018347869573832384
Returning productionMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.0135135135135135140.02027027027027027-0.019702555983225498
Team talentMeasuredMeasured0.0675680.0168918918918918930.025337837837837840.02588520435855183
Big-game winsMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.105175930647628760.10116012238653749-0.008589052932086491
Recent formMeasuredMeasured0.0540540.070117287098419180.06744008159102499-0.05272209797289057
Wins away from homeMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.052587965323814380.0505800611932687440.03417069082781497
Tough schedulesMeasuredMeasured0.0810810.105175930647628760.10116012238653749-0.09488078701828558
Statement winsMeasuredMeasured0.0405410.052587965323814380.0505800611932687440.07055840210847242
WinningMeasuredMeasured0.1081080.140234574196838350.134880163182049980.17344734721726132

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.