FROZEN PREDICTION

Wisconsin vs Purdue

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wisconsin by 1.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.4610 · 80% margin interval -17.9 to 15.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.08212660888701073
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.030509972843774453
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.04359320621569772
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.1116602489231582
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.027143462421490565
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.010763275746140059
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.003079210445940482
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.012306258742145127
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.011450219988100594
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.016201186083955574
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.011389558677523837
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.11612049463531235
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.011898234428528137
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.11087802512920054
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.06182713396833632
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.17689306674860972

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.