FROZEN PREDICTION

Western Kentucky vs Liberty

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Liberty by 8.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritAway data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7452 · 80% margin interval -8.1 to 25.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14705882352941177	0.21804547947293568
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05514705882352942	0.1201887480699794
Close-game grit	Measured	Data unavailable	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09191176470588236	0.15488429749875027
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.09191176470588236	0.05727385077264773
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.005067567567567568	0.00911411242109098
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.008354536490539296
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.004515961597914457
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.006756756756756757	-0.012774212966881951
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.008445945945945946	-0.0012809306576114397
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.11029411764705883	0.04082533761039002
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07352941176470588	0.09272720842930184
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05514705882352942	0.028562837045246692
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.11029411764705883	-0.16935315541059803
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05514705882352942	0.09233503413491707
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14705882352941177	0.2500288758209531

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.