FROZEN PREDICTION

Tennessee Tech vs Mississippi State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Mississippi State by 18.4

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.9211 · 80% margin interval 1.7 to 35.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.2955828975412359
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.010385232815422675
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.02702702702702703	0.08423122550686288
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.10253428690569794
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.06756756756756757	0.2116315628483898
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.04054054054054054	0.048165642124104534
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.08545672091793366
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.12294910370628505
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.05405405405405406	0.07469003755104447
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.06756756756756757	0.12279029269989558
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.2796274415562786
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.05405405405405406	0.03948510416840314
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.17710788150308737
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.08108108108108109	0.2475030744856331
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.04054054054054054	0.06998248196972946
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.10810810810810811	0.2939327112383525

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.