FROZEN PREDICTION

Chattanooga vs Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Alabama by 23.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactModerately leans home

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthModerately leans home

Returning productionModerately leans home

Team talentModerately leans home

Big-game winsStrongly leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.9661 · 80% margin interval 7.1 to 40.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.10810810810810811	0.39465868027565026
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.04054054054054054	0.133987018490607
Close-game grit	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.02702702702702703	-0.00468959974928259
Defensive toughness	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.06756756756756757	0.23463086762935342
Scoring punch	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.06756756756756757	0.24936599562358724
Transfer portal impact	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.04054054054054054	0.05144435179494926
Previous-season performance	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.05405405405405406	0.09816983281613954
Recruiting strength	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.06756756756756757	0.1352502171981957
Returning production	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.05405405405405406	0.07292628839797424
Team talent	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.06756756756756757	0.13421532961817928
Big-game wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.08108108108108109	0.37067042722654464
Recent form	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.05405405405405406	0.18155734825144138
Wins away from home	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.04054054054054054	0.189611451716873
Tough schedules	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.08108108108108109	0.30711859481499104
Statement wins	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.04054054054054054	0.16638356511495855
Winning	Measured	FCS baseline estimate	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.10810810810810811	0.31939968196215307

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.