FROZEN PREDICTION

Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

North Dakota State by 12.5

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceModerately leans home

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionHome data unavailable

Team talentHome data unavailable

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesStrongly leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.8318 · 80% margin interval -4.2 to 29.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.3042449931501175
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.11909528228949784
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.043600650047563604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.1469284362121638
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.09875631974446139
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.020968315723555925
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.05548825851975364
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.018500339586936428
Returning production	Data unavailable	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.001241386582938272
Team talent	Data unavailable	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	0.03523112360469853
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.1350746797428101
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.19120722641262658
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.06735295714792944
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	-0.32191677705766986
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.15675887646756398
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.39527074102110893

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.