FROZEN PREDICTION

Utah State vs Oregon State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 12 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Oregon State by 10.7

Why this pick?

Game controlStrongly leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.153531-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7944 · 80% margin interval -6.0 to 27.3.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.3082706021761955
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.08401697772603925
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.031779155205697296
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08843402225755168	0.08764660887302397	0.23758718736365808
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.035132273650405305
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.012841754794696233
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.007942984409555293
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.003790254409844677
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.02074010458101114
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	0.060386599354171774
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07074721780604133	0.07011728709841918	0.13421565698260202
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.021164347399706348
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.106120826709062	0.10517593064762876	-0.049054407670482005
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.053060413354531	0.05258796532381438	0.16072251426945983
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14149443561208266	0.14023457419683835	0.20286365566378542

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.