FROZEN PREDICTION

Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Western Michigan by 3.2

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5968 · 80% margin interval -13.5 to 19.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.05278876565501301
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.04186785240080382
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.015109206346815915
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.0563110842722614
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.041766528999550544
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.0020930099533046993
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.006170219636195863
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0026387084928471503
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.038953950287479
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.007285529437672708
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.08918059513401283
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.016168893991395115
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.021728918197384213
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.11016834939867129
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.04001541264137437
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620511

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.