FROZEN PREDICTION

Kent State vs Eastern Michigan

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Eastern Michigan by 5.1

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6526 · 80% margin interval -11.6 to 21.8.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.01915461533862539
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	-0.002321489672833285
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03639724630290668	0.03505864354920959	0.045331340956380695
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.014771796744334154
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.09099311575726671	0.08764660887302397	0.034895284956326336
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.005067567567567568	0.010135135135135136	-0.0010725478636571398
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	0.010488088753179265
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.009029713842350084
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.006756756756756757	0.013513513513513514	-0.0036329157113497877
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.008445945945945946	0.016891891891891893	0.019764287301898636
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	0.062440693366488075
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07279449260581336	0.07011728709841918	0.13436670450208854
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.05728462122714748
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10919173890872005	0.10517593064762876	-0.2013120281512667
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05459586945436003	0.05258796532381438	0.027898854148665404
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14558898521162672	0.14023457419683835	0.14447569717705544

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.