FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulane vs South Florida

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

South Florida by 4.9

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6478 · 80% margin interval -11.7 to 21.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.09107951270930871
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.029307496680562678
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	-0.015109206346815915
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.053055619228573284
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.09340458428149574
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.019718356928502156
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.012713905697181598
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00021341961400194018
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.004361388635985652
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.0020210247894634917
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.08466643323976275
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.030541244205968553
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.06215240480060667
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0461122917482732
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.10118001873620511

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.