FROZEN PREDICTION

Nebraska vs Iowa

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Iowa by 1.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningNeutral effect

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5544 · 80% margin interval -14.9 to 18.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.11045650542351479
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.05861499336112534
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.09065523808089551
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.031865667606707004
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.07963659711385543
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.006884901162186508
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.016143449938954172
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00048781626057586847
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.006282476487550761
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.014052556260820137
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.07700456706115003
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.0700652072960455
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.06837820269096721
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.016750232659132516
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.07202774275447388
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.0

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.