FROZEN PREDICTION

Minnesota vs Wisconsin

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Wisconsin by 7.3

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7130 · 80% margin interval -9.4 to 24.0.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.15345289699430395
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.0012024761632117818
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.033720040795512496	0.03505864354920959	-0.0017344128247500298
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.04874642581220375
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08430010198878124	0.08764660887302397	0.06909885577291111
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	0.020457216582498657
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.0017023183235999944
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.0026947539829862196
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	-0.020484525019785163
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.013261743038106677
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.01434410824756199
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.06744008159102499	0.07011728709841918	0.15025482639492424
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.026371305253789834
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10116012238653749	0.10517593064762876	0.07353364083104855
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050580061193268744	0.05258796532381438	0.06182713396833632
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.13488016318204998	0.14023457419683835	0.07571304801240461

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.