FROZEN PREDICTION

West Virginia vs Utah

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Utah by 11.6

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritHome data unavailable

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.8132 · 80% margin interval -5.1 to 28.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14023457419683835	0.19824933400166167
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.09401607301072694
Close-game grit	Data unavailable	Measured	0.027027	0.02702702702702703	0.03505864354920959	-0.00009747875062462076
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08764660887302397	0.18381326544107518
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08495627980922099	0.08764660887302397	0.035607946783245734
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.015202702702702704	0.010135135135135136	-0.005050424236580725
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.042087039478445235
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.0048619793489821355
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.02027027027027027	0.013513513513513514	0.03468184909610479
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.02533783783783784	0.016891891891891893	0.008940257135293195
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10517593064762876	0.15396786416544192
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.0679650238473768	0.07011728709841918	0.18538752299732053
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.011359202723655808
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10194753577106519	0.10517593064762876	-0.0970146171077629
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.050973767885532595	0.05258796532381438	0.14881799258425038
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.1359300476947536	0.14023457419683835	0.2956078814963279

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.