FROZEN PREDICTION

Purdue vs Indiana

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Indiana by 11.4

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans home

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans home

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans away

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningStrongly leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.8107 · 80% margin interval -5.2 to 28.1.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.1793979257189461
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.15553907166898623
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.04532761904044775
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.17114706056001744
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.021462176812212186
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.007582571146621402
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.030098669448680854
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.006507483434423176
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.016043679625232933
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.005349029405321604
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.22080481419217413
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.07365829484968886
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.10227769899001243
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.0825331409735864
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.3035400562086154

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.