FROZEN PREDICTION

Pittsburgh vs California

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Pittsburgh by 5.0

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans away

Avoiding bad lossesModerately leans away

Close-game gritNeutral effect

Defensive toughnessModerately leans away

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans away

Recent formModerately leans away

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsModerately leans away

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.3491 · 80% margin interval -21.7 to 11.6.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.2081411864298706
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.0711753490813665
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.0
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.1301158995801876
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.08423676058850209
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	0.007949765875271353
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	-0.015436899219738773
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.005920216537390621
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.009657360551111086
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.005677035925459253
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.16240554381539646
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	-0.08982718884108398
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.012822030495016276
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	-0.03831173654102889
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	-0.08003082528274874
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	-0.20236003747241027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.