FROZEN PREDICTION

Tulsa vs UTSA

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

UTSA by 6.6

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans home

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchSmall effect

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesSmall effect

Statement winsNeutral effect

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.6937 · 80% margin interval -10.1 to 23.2.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.03481997274860855
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.01674714096032153
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.03505864354920959	0.06043682538726367
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	-0.03323270844814942
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08764660887302397	0.010699673591764493
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.010135135135135136	-0.0015789373331947742
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.017483530306621083
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	-0.0013741609840329152
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.013513513513513514	0.013291851081099135
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.016891891891891893	0.00849158418094806
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.0587811232522098
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.07011728709841918	0.10779262660930078
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.08371735428707286
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10517593064762876	0.004988689824368155
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.05258796532381438	0.0
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.14023457419683835	0.20236003747241027

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.