FROZEN PREDICTION

Auburn vs Alabama

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Alabama by 10.8

Why this pick?

Game controlModerately leans home

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritModerately leans away

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans home

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsModerately leans home

Recent formModerately leans home

Wins away from homeModerately leans home

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsModerately leans home

WinningModerately leans home

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.7973 · 80% margin interval -5.8 to 27.5.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.17594737618601428
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.030982483827806127
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	-0.05985620650172503
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.04702712858292814
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.17337363049927662
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	-0.013933543234621539
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.0009591295698162944
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.0036438360878722417
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	0.013423229132951249
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.011540465745507461
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.2498826985185157
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	0.12479275939324429
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.05430191330516018
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.12166265299785729
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.1425861448629463
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.14224710871242427

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.