FROZEN PREDICTION

Kansas State vs Iowa State

My CFB Baseline · 2026 Week 13 · revision 3 · Independent

Open this immutable run

Iowa State by 2.8

Why this pick?

Game controlSmall effect

Avoiding bad lossesSmall effect

Close-game gritSmall effect

Defensive toughnessSmall effect

Scoring punchModerately leans away

Transfer portal impactSmall effect

Previous-season performanceSmall effect

Recruiting strengthSmall effect

Returning productionSmall effect

Team talentSmall effect

Big-game winsSmall effect

Recent formSmall effect

Wins away from homeSmall effect

Tough schedulesModerately leans home

Statement winsSmall effect

WinningModerately leans away

Show the technical details

Frozen 2026-10-16T22:28:38.600548-05:00 · Snapshot 515 · Home win probability 0.5839 · 80% margin interval -13.9 to 19.4.

Provisional calibration: real-season accuracy is not established.

Model configuration used

Configuration: Revision 3
Engine version: 3.8.0-kickoff-chronology
Evidence cutoff: Oct 16, 2026 · 10:28 PM CDT

Factors unavailable across the whole snapshot are excluded. Their weight is redistributed among available factors, so the effective model can differ from the configured sliders. Missing evidence for just one team remains neutral. The tables show saved weights; omitted factors are not reconstructed from current model settings.

Factor key	Normalized share
`adj_margin`	0.108108
`avoid_bad_losses`	0.040541
`close_game_wins`	0.027027
`defense_ppg`	0.067568
`offense_ppg`	0.067568
`preseason_portal`	0.040541
`preseason_previous_performance`	0.054054
`preseason_recruiting`	0.067568
`preseason_returning`	0.054054
`preseason_talent`	0.067568
`quality_wins`	0.081081
`recent_form`	0.054054
`road_neutral_wins`	0.040541
`sos`	0.081081
`statement_wins`	0.040541
`win_pct`	0.108108

Retained calibration/context	Frozen value
`version`	provisional-all-slates-policy-v1
`calibration_kind`	documented_policy
`validation_status`	not_historically_validated
`applied_home_field_points`	2.5
`applied_fcs_baseline_z`	-1.5
`residual_scale`	13.0
`residual_scale_source`	documented_policy_not_validated
`intercept`	0.0
`difference_coefficient`	7.0
`home_field_coefficient`	2.5

These values came from this immutable run, not the model’s current settings.

Factor	Home evidence	Away evidence	Normalized share	Home effective share	Away effective share	Weighted difference
Game control	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	0.018470501413637153
Avoiding bad losses	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	0.02117018169241775
Close-game grit	Measured	Measured	0.027027	0.03505864354920959	0.033720040795512496	0.043600650047563604
Defensive toughness	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	0.019067706991685758
Scoring punch	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.08764660887302397	0.08430010198878124	-0.056087311677833415
Transfer portal impact	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.010135135135135136	0.015202702702702704	0.006959836825560461
Previous-season performance	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.000928400437228841
Recruiting strength	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.005873726243591688
Returning production	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.013513513513513514	0.02027027027027027	-0.043404626368076085
Team talent	Measured	Measured	0.067568	0.016891891891891893	0.02533783783783784	-0.010250390870535305
Big-game wins	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.027420644774825642
Recent form	Measured	Measured	0.054054	0.07011728709841918	0.06744008159102499	-0.022798211537502566
Wins away from home	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.0016182501140666466
Tough schedules	Measured	Measured	0.081081	0.10517593064762876	0.10116012238653749	0.11657228852689906
Statement wins	Measured	Measured	0.040541	0.05258796532381438	0.050580061193268744	-0.01564207225061915
Winning	Measured	Measured	0.108108	0.14023457419683835	0.13488016318204998	-0.060112928759986015

Missing team data was represented neutrally in the calculation; it was not a measured neutral result. Measured equal or offsetting inputs can also have zero effect.

This is the exact saved prediction. Current model settings and current prediction selection are not used here.